2026-27 · Faceoff Week xG model

Expected Goals

Every unblocked shot attempt gets an expected-goal value from distance, angle, shot type, rebounds, rushes, strength and score state. Trained on our own shot database.

#	Player	Team	Pos	GP	Attempts	SOG	HD	G	xG	G − xG	xG/GP
1	BHBrandon Hagel	TBL	L	8	50	38	6	6	5.61	+0.39	0.70
2	THTomas Hertl	VGK	C	10	37	23	6	4	5.14	-1.14	0.51
3	KKKirill Kaprizov	MIN	L	7	49	26	5	9	5.09	+3.91	0.73
4	MBMatt Boldy	MIN	L	8	52	35	4	5	4.47	+0.53	0.56
5	SRSam Reinhart	FLA	C	9	46	29	2	5	4.46	+0.54	0.50
6	ASAndrei Svechnikov	CAR	R	9	41	29	3	6	4.37	+1.63	0.49
7	MMMason McTavish	STL	C	8	40	29	4	5	4.31	+0.69	0.54
8	JEJoel Eriksson Ek	MIN	C	8	35	23	5	1	4.10	-3.10	0.51
9	TTTage Thompson	BUF	C	9	56	42	2	5	4.10	+0.90	0.46
10	KCKyle Connor	WPG	L	8	50	37	1	8	4.07	+3.93	0.51
11	SASebastian Aho	CAR	C	9	43	27	2	6	4.03	+1.97	0.45
12	WNWilliam Nylander	TOR	R	9	46	28	4	5	3.97	+1.03	0.44
13	LDLeon Draisaitl	EDM	C	8	41	28	3	6	3.93	+2.07	0.49
14	BTBrady Tkachuk	FLA	L	9	49	32	2	6	3.86	+2.14	0.43
15	NMNathan MacKinnon	COL	C	8	51	38	3	6	3.83	+2.17	0.48
16	JBJackson Blake	CAR	R	9	35	25	3	1	3.81	-2.81	0.42
17	ATAlex Tuch	WSH	R	8	37	22	2	5	3.78	+1.22	0.47
18	WCWill Cuylle	NYR	L	10	37	24	3	3	3.78	-0.78	0.38
19	MSMark Stone	VGK	R	9	31	20	2	7	3.67	+3.33	0.41
20	ALAlexis Lafrenière	NYR	L	9	31	19	3	7	3.66	+3.34	0.41
21	NSNick Schmaltz	UTA	C	9	32	28	5	6	3.62	+2.38	0.40
22	AMAuston Matthews	TOR	C	9	41	27	2	6	3.62	+2.38	0.40
23	JHJack Hughes	NJD	C	8	48	32	0	2	3.62	-1.62	0.45
24	ZBZach Benson	BUF	L	8	33	18	5	0	3.50	-3.50	0.44
25	JQJack Quinn	BUF	R	9	41	24	2	5	3.47	+1.53	0.39
26	CPCole Perfetti	WPG	C	8	38	21	1	5	3.43	+1.57	0.43
27	ADAlex DeBrincat	DET	R	8	46	30	2	5	3.41	+1.59	0.43
28	JRJason Robertson	DAL	L	8	38	26	3	3	3.38	-0.38	0.42
29	ALAnders Lee	UTA	L	8	34	17	0	2	3.36	-1.36	0.42
30	PDPavel Dorofeyev	NYR	R	10	40	30	0	2	3.31	-1.31	0.33
31	VPVasily Podkolzin	EDM	R	7	30	22	3	7	3.30	+3.70	0.47
32	CMConnor McDavid	EDM	C	7	32	18	3	6	3.29	+2.71	0.47
33	JRJack Roslovic	TOR	C	9	38	29	2	3	3.22	-0.22	0.36
34	BHBo Horvat	NYI	C	8	36	26	1	5	3.18	+1.82	0.40
35	DPDavid Pastrnak	BOS	R	9	47	34	0	4	3.18	+0.82	0.35
36	VAViktor Arvidsson	DET	L	8	35	21	2	3	3.17	-0.17	0.40
37	AEAdam Edstrom	NSH	C	8	21	15	4	4	3.15	+0.85	0.39
38	DGDylan Guenther	UTA	R	9	47	28	0	4	3.14	+0.86	0.35
39	RRRickard Rakell	PIT	R	9	36	21	1	0	3.12	-3.12	0.35
40	BSBeckett Sennecke	ANA	R	7	30	18	2	5	3.12	+1.88	0.45
41	KMKirill Marchenko	TOR	R	8	37	25	0	4	3.11	+0.89	0.39
42	MBMichael Brandsegg-Nygård	DET	R	8	34	22	1	2	3.07	-1.07	0.38
43	LSLogan Stankoven	CAR	C	7	30	24	1	4	3.04	+0.96	0.43
44	NSNick Suzuki	MTL	C	8	44	22	0	4	3.02	+0.98	0.38
45	MJMark Jankowski	CAR	L	8	24	15	1	6	2.98	+3.02	0.37
46	NONoah Ostlund	BUF	C	9	31	20	4	2	2.98	-0.98	0.33
47	FNFrank Nazar	CHI	C	7	20	14	3	3	2.95	+0.05	0.42
48	NKNazem Kadri	COL	C	8	31	24	4	0	2.92	-2.92	0.36
49	JGJake Guentzel	TBL	C	8	27	20	3	4	2.91	+1.09	0.36
50	BPBrayden Point	TBL	C	8	34	16	0	1	2.88	-1.88	0.36
51	JMJared McCann	SEA	L	8	38	26	2	3	2.83	+0.17	0.35
52	JEJack Eichel	VGK	C	9	35	28	2	5	2.83	+2.17	0.31
53	CCCole Caufield	MTL	R	8	41	28	1	4	2.81	+1.19	0.35
54	SCSidney Crosby	PIT	C	9	34	21	0	3	2.79	+0.21	0.31
55	JEJordan Eberle	SEA	R	8	28	19	2	3	2.79	+0.21	0.35
56	BMBobby McMann	SEA	C	8	40	25	0	3	2.74	+0.26	0.34
57	GPGabe Perreault	NYR	R	9	28	19	0	3	2.72	+0.28	0.30
58	MCMacklin Celebrini	SJS	C	6	38	26	0	3	2.71	+0.29	0.45
59	CKClayton Keller	UTA	R	9	31	22	2	3	2.69	+0.31	0.30
60	MBMikael Backlund	CGY	C	7	35	22	1	1	2.68	-1.68	0.38
61	TFTyson Foerster	PHI	R	10	35	22	1	1	2.67	-1.67	0.27
62	CGCutter Gauthier	ANA	L	5	40	21	0	2	2.66	-0.66	0.53
63	JSJimmy Snuggerud	STL	R	8	32	20	2	4	2.64	+1.36	0.33
64	NHNico Hischier	NJD	C	8	27	16	2	4	2.63	+1.37	0.33
65	SPShane Pinto	OTT	C	9	29	14	2	1	2.63	-1.63	0.29
66	WKWilliam Karlsson	VGK	C	10	31	17	2	2	2.62	-0.62	0.26
67	MZMika Zibanejad	NYR	C	10	30	19	1	2	2.60	-0.60	0.26
68	WSWill Smith	SJS	C	8	32	21	0	3	2.58	+0.42	0.32
69	ALArtturi Lehkonen	COL	L	8	23	12	1	6	2.57	+3.43	0.32
70	LRLucas Raymond	DET	L	8	36	23	0	0	2.57	-2.57	0.32
71	SBSam Bennett	FLA	C	9	29	21	0	3	2.56	+0.44	0.28
72	AKAdrian Kempe	LAK	R	6	34	17	0	1	2.56	-1.56	0.43
73	BHBrett Howden	VGK	C	9	27	16	0	3	2.55	+0.45	0.28
74	SWShane Wright	SEA	C	8	25	17	1	3	2.55	+0.45	0.32
75	JDJake DeBrusk	VAN	L	6	25	20	0	3	2.54	+0.46	0.42
76	BKBen Kindel	PIT	C	8	28	21	2	2	2.54	-0.54	0.32
77	SSSteven Stamkos	NSH	C	7	26	14	2	4	2.51	+1.49	0.36
78	JTJohn Tavares	TOR	C	6	23	17	3	2	2.51	-0.51	0.42
79	GVGabriel Vilardi	WPG	C	7	27	14	0	0	2.51	-2.51	0.36
80	CVCarter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	9	37	16	1	6	2.50	+3.50	0.28
81	RHRoope Hintz	DAL	C	8	27	16	1	3	2.49	+0.51	0.31
82	ALAnton Lundell	FLA	C	9	33	25	0	1	2.49	-1.49	0.28
83	JBJesper Bratt	NJD	L	8	31	22	1	2	2.47	-0.47	0.31
84	TSTyler Seguin	DAL	C	8	35	23	0	2	2.46	-0.46	0.31
85	FFFilip Forsberg	NSH	L	8	38	24	0	1	2.45	-1.45	0.31
86	WJWyatt Johnston	DAL	C	6	24	16	1	0	2.45	-2.45	0.41
87	TMTimo Meier	NJD	R	8	39	29	1	0	2.43	-2.43	0.30
88	FMFraser Minten	BOS	C	9	30	23	1	4	2.40	+1.60	0.27
89	VTVincent Trocheck	UTA	C	7	21	12	3	2	2.36	-0.36	0.34
90	MMMitch Marner	VGK	R	10	31	23	0	2	2.35	-0.35	0.24
91	JAJosh Anderson	MTL	R	8	26	17	2	4	2.33	+1.67	0.29
92	RLRyan Leonard	WSH	R	8	28	20	1	3	2.33	+0.67	0.29
93	MTMatthew Tkachuk	FLA	L	9	31	19	0	3	2.32	+0.68	0.26
94	DBDrake Batherson	OTT	R	9	30	21	0	4	2.32	+1.68	0.26
95	JSJuraj Slafkovský	MTL	L	8	31	23	0	1	2.32	-1.32	0.29
96	TCTrevor Connelly	VGK	L	9	29	20	0	4	2.29	+1.71	0.25
97	JMJordan Martinook	CAR	L	8	24	15	2	1	2.27	-1.27	0.28
98	BHBarrett Hayton	UTA	C	8	26	15	1	1	2.26	-1.26	0.28
99	RORyan O'Reilly	NSH	C	8	24	18	0	4	2.25	+1.75	0.28
100	NKNikita Kucherov	TBL	R	8	39	24	0	3	2.25	+0.75	0.28